The Issues that Will Decide the Midterm Election

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As we approach the conclusion of the 2022 election season, the political environment appears to have drifted halfway between early-year extremes. Prior to the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion rights, the GOP seemed poised to ride economic issues – particularly inflation – to a convincing midterm victory. The court’s ruling in Dobbs pushed the momentum back toward the Democrats. Over the summer, it appeared that Democrats were favored to hold the Senate, if not necessarily the House. The fall seems to have dissipated that advantage but has not completely restored the original Republican dominance. The GOP has an increasing edge in the RealClearPolitics generic congressional ballot average, which suggests they’ll take the House. However, the current polling averages in competitive Senate races indicate that Democrats have a shot at holding enough seats to keep control.

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