ABSTRACT
Contemporary election reforms that are purported to increase or decrease turnout tend to have neg
ligible effects on election outcomes. We offer an analytical framework to explain why. Contrary to
heated political rhetoric, election policies have small effects on outcomes because they tend to target
small shares of the electorate, have a small effect on turnout, and/or affect voters who are relatively
balanced in their partisanship. After developing this framework, we address how the findings bear on
minority voting rights. We then show that countermobilization from political parties cannot explain
the small effects of election laws. We explain that even when a state passes multiple policies at the
same time, the reforms will still only have a marginal effect on turnout and an ambiguous effect on
whowins. Finally, we explain what policies should raise alarm about affecting outcomes.