Maintaining a tradition of high-impact research and policy advice, this latest report from the New
Lines Institute was prepared by a talented group of international law professionals with expertise
in international criminal law and human rights. Distinctive for the breadth and depth of analysis,
it has the potential to become a landmark step in the road to accountability for crimes allegedly
committed against Tigrayans in the course of the armed conflict that took place in Ethiopia from
November 2020 to at least November 2022.
This report situates the credible allegations of crimes against Tigrayans in the context of the
Genocide Convention, as well as related doctrines within international criminal law. In doing
so, it highlights possible implications for the responsibility of Ethiopia as a State as well as the
need for a full criminal investigation. The report convincingly identifies at least a reasonable
basis to believe that genocide was committed against Tigrayans as an ethnic group, including
through mass killings, the use of starvation, and the destruction of critical infrastructure, as well
as countless instances of rape and other acts of sexual violence. By foregrounding the question
of genocide, the report opens the door to a fuller understanding of the severity and scale of the
harms suffered by victims of this under-reported conflict.
As the New Lines Institute previously explored in its work on crimes allegedly committed in
Ukraine, as well as against the Rohingya in Burma/Myanmar and the Uyghur in China, gender
based crime is seldom fully or adequately recognized. Justice for these crimes is rarer still.
Tragically, consistent with other credible accounts, this report finds reason to believe that
members of the Ethiopian National Defence Force – and associated forces including the Eritrean
Defence Forces, the Amhara Special Forces, and related militia groups – weaponized rape and
sexual violence not only to drive out and displace Tigrayans from Western Tigray, but also to
destroy the Tigrayan group as such. Tigrayan women who were subjected to these horrendous
acts are now often destitute and cast out of society. Even if the conflict ended in November 2022,
credible allegations persist that rape and sexual violence continued to be committed by the same
perpetrator groups in the aftermath.
Recognizing that there is a reasonable basis to believe that genocide was committed against
Tigrayans is important not only of itself, but in helping policymakers to formulate an appropriate
response. From the perspective of international law, credible allegations of genocide not only
trigger potential new routes toward accountability and redress, but also place a new emphasis
for members of the international community to consider their obligations to promote such
outcomes. From the perspective of victims and affected communities, recognizing that there is
reason to believe genocide took place should guide further work in assessing their trauma and
working toward meeting their recovery needs.
Significantly, this report points to the first concrete steps that States and the international
community should consider taking in order to meet their obligations, and to help promote a
just and stable peace in Ethiopia. Most importantly, this requires reinvigorating the process of
fact-finding and accountability that has regrettably stalled. This can be done by various means,
including in States’ bilateral relations, in exercising their rights and fulfilling their obligations
under the Genocide Convention, in advocating for an independent criminal investigation, and in
exercising universal jurisdiction over suitable cases in accordance with their own applicable law.
Perhaps the most important message of the report, however, is its plea for commitment and
consistency in promoting and defending the most basic principles of international law. In a world
where one crisis seems to follow hard on the heels of another, States adhering to international
law must somehow find means to stay the course. If the international community constantly
pivots from one situation to another, justice will never be delivered. Tigray is a case in point. But it
is not too late; the opportunity remains to build a solid foundation for justice and accountability in
Tigray. States and policymakers should seize upon this report as the impetus to do just that.
Baroness Helena Kennedy KC
Director
International Bar Association’s Human Rights Institute