For weeks, the White House said the stars were aligned for a cease-fire agreement that would free the hostages held in Gaza. The framework of a deal first announced by President Biden has been in place since July. Since then, a phalanx of American officials has traveled frequently to the region, pushing Israel and Hamas to sign on. So far, they have failed.
The last time I wrote this newsletter about the hostage talks, at the start of May, U.S. officials were describing Hamas as the holdout. (Israel had just made a major concession, dropping a demand to maintain checkpoints inside Gaza.) But by early last month, Hamas had shifted its position, made some concessions and signaled it was ready to move forward. Now, Washington sees Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as the chief obstacle to a deal.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how the script flipped.
The stars align
It’s an ideal time for Hamas to strike a bargain. The group is not destroyed and retains some military strength. But it is broken and severely weakened. Thousands of fighters are dead. Top commanders have been killed. Its leader, Yahya Sinwar, is isolated from other Hamas leaders. By some accounts, Gazan frustration with Hamas is growing. The group has even agreed to give up civilian control of Gaza, a sign it is ready to make concessions.
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| In northern Gaza. Omar Al-Qattaa/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images |
Hamas officials, angered by Israel’s recent assassination of a political leader and negotiator, have said they won’t participate in the latest talks, which began yesterday. But American officials think that position will change, and Hamas appears willing to meet with Qatari and Egyptian mediators.
Additionally, there appears to be little more that Israel can accomplish militarily. Hardly any part of Gaza is untouched by Israeli bombs. Military operations are now games of Whac-a-Mole against Hamas fighters who disappear easily into the population. American officials say Israel reaps diminishing returns: The remaining Hamas fighters are harder to hit, but Palestinian civilians — devastated by the war — bear ever-heavier burdens. The local health ministry says 40,005 Gazans, both civilians and combatants, have already been killed.
Israeli defense officials concede that Netanyahu cannot realize his goal of wiping out Hamas. They believe diplomacy is the only way to bring home the roughly 115 living and dead hostages still held in Gaza. While daring military operations have rescued seven hostages, negotiations have freed more than 100. Those who remain alive in Gaza appear to be beyond the reach of Israeli commandos, many likely hidden deep in tunnels and used as human shields to protect Hamas leaders.
The holdup
But Netanyahu seems unready for a permanent cease-fire. American officials had hoped he would conclude an agreement after his speech to Congress last month. Instead, my colleagues have chronicled how Netanyahu imposed new cease-fire conditions: He wants Israel to keep control of Gaza’s southern border and has partially revived demands to screen Palestinians for weapons before they can return to their homes in the north — points negotiators thought Israel had already conceded.
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| By The New York Times |
One reason may be political. Centrists have left the government, and a cease-fire agreement could break his right-wing coalition. When Netanyahu’s defense minister — a hawkish member of his own party — said “total victory” was unrealistic, the prime minister flayed him for adopting an “anti-Israel narrative.”
Even if Netanyahu’s coalition held, an end to the war would intensify calls for a new election. After the Oct. 7 attack exposed security failures, it’s hard to imagine that Israeli voters will return Netanyahu to power.
Delay might also allow Israeli forces to kill Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7 terror attack, delivering a major victory for Netanyahu and potentially a dose of redemption. If the negotiations drag on long enough, it’s even possible Donald Trump will return to the White House and change the U.S. stance to align more closely with Netanyahu.
The costs of delay
This strategy is risky. Already, at least 40 hostages have died in captivity. There are doubts about how much longer those still alive can survive. And making a deal quickly holds the possibility — however slim — that Iran and Hezbollah might refrain from retaliating for Israel’s recent assassinations.
Of course, it is Hamas that started this war by attacking Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking hostages back to Gaza. And at important moments when a deal was at hand, the group rejected it. It is possible that once Netanyahu is ready for an agreement, Hamas will, once more, back away.
But American officials believe the group is ready to cede a measure of power in return for a cease-fire and, crucially, a path to a Palestinian state. If Netanyahu is not ready for closure, Israel will miss the opportunity to halt the fighting, and some hostages may never return home. The tragedy of the war will only grow.