2024’s Year of Elections May Fuel World’s Violent Conflicts
The harshest blows of conflict in 2024 will likely fall on the world’s countries that are already the worst hit by violence. In 2023, 97% of all political violence occurred in 50 countries, as ranked by the ACLED Conflict Index. In 2024, our new Conflict Watchlist suggests that many of these same conflicts — fueled by political competition, regional crises, and civil disputes — will catalyze more violence in several of these states.
The unprecedented number of elections this year could be a key driver of domestic violence and international spillover in 2024: they include planned races in Mexico, the United States, and Russia; contested election results in the Democratic Republic of Congo; and a new government taking office in Haiti. Perhaps most prominently, the outcome of the US general election alone could have serious knock-on effects on cartel violence in Mexico and the deadly conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine (and Yemen’s Houthis by extension). National and local elections in Mexico will likely catalyze armed groups’ targeting of election-related figures, elevating already extreme levels of violence.
In several regions of the world, violent contests for power present a long-term challenge to stability and threaten civilians caught in the crossfire. The decades-long insecurity in the Sahel is entering a new phase, as junta-driven state forces resort to more aggressive tactics. In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) takeover in Darfur could further prolong the fighting, which has already displaced millions of people and led to thousands of reported fatalities since it began in April. Meanwhile, the struggle between military junta and a disjointed resistance front in Myanmar enters its third year of violent repression and attacks against civilians, but may be at a turning point as coordination among resistance groups builds momentum.
In ACLED’s new Conflict Watchlist, we identify 10 crisis areas that are likely to evolve in the coming year. The Watchlist goes beyond a snapshot of violent hotspots; these local, national, and transnational conflicts represent some of the most complex crises in the world.