The Syrian Civil War is a long-running tragedy. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including more than 200,000 civilians, according to human rights experts. Millions more Syrians have fled their homes. The flood of refugees into Europe has been large enough to help destabilize politics in France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere.
Until recently, Bashar al-Assad — Syria’s authoritarian president, who’s responsible for much of the carnage — seemed to be in a dominant position. His forces controlled about two-thirds of the country’s territory, including all the largest cities. The war seemed to have reached a stalemate.
Over the past two weeks, however, anti-Assad rebels have made surprising gains (as these Times maps show). The rebels captured most of Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city, and have since taken another major city, Hama. They are heading toward Damascus, the capital.
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| Sources: Institute for the Study of War; Janes | Areas of control are approximate. Advances since late Nov. shown as of Dec. 4. | By Samuel Granados |
The war has entered an uncertain new phase. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain why the situation has changed — and how the war affects the rest of the world.
Who’s on Assad’s side?
The Assad family, which has run Syria since a 1970 coup, is Alawite, a minority sect that’s an offshoot of Shiite Islam. The government is secular, but its closest ally is Iran, the most powerful Shiite country. Syria is a core part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” — a network of countries and groups (including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis) that hopes to destroy Israel and reduce American influence in the Middle East.
Geography helps explain Syria’s importance to the axis: Iran funnels weapons to Hezbollah across Syria, for use in Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah have repaid the favor by sending thousands of militants to fight on Assad’s side during the civil war.
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| By Lazaro Gamio |
Russia is another Syrian ally. Syria was on the Soviets’ side during the Cold War, and Vladimir Putin today sees the country as a way to maintain his influence in the Middle East. After the civil war began 13 years ago, Russia sent planes, troops and advisers to fight for Assad.
These ties highlight Syria’s role as a secondary player, but still an important one, in the emerging global alliance that includes China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. (I explained the importance of that alliance in a recent Morning.) Not surprisingly, the U.S. and the European Union view Assad as an enemy. Partly because of his brutality toward his own people, Western nations spent years pushing for Assad’s ouster, including through sanctions that have hobbled Syria’s economy.
Geopolitics also seems to be why the rebels launched their offensive now. Iran is distracted by its conflict with Israel. Hezbollah has been badly weakened by Israel. Russia is focused on Ukraine. All of which has left Syria’s allies less able to send troops and equipment to turn back a rebel advance.
“This was a really opportune moment for the rebels to try to strike at Assad,” said Vivian Yee, The Times’s Cairo bureau chief, who has been covering the war.
Who are the rebels?
Assad’s closeness to Iran and Russia might make it seem as if the U.S. should be allied with the Syrian rebels. But that’s not quite the case. The situation is more complex.
The main rebel group is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or H.T.S., which controls much of Syria’s northeast. H.T.S. is a Sunni Muslim group descended from Al Qaeda, and the U.S. government classifies it as a terrorist group. But it has since renounced Al Qaeda.
“Its leader, known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has restyled himself as a less extreme, more nationalist leader who places more emphasis on toppling the Assad government and replacing it,” said Ben Hubbard, The Times’s Istanbul bureau chief. “What exactly that government would look like is anyone’s guess, but the group remains Islamist in outlook.”
A second, smaller rebel faction is a confederation of less ideological groups that operate mostly near Syria’s border with Turkey and that the Turkish government supports. Many observers believe that Turkey at least tacitly approved the recent rebel push that led to the capture of Aleppo.
Turkey has several reasons to back the rebels. It and Syria have long been regional rivals. Turkey also sees rebel gains as potential leverage that would push Assad to negotiate the return of many Syrian war refugees now in Turkey, Vivian notes. Finally, a strong rebel movement could weaken a Kurdish-led militia that operates near the border and that Turkey considers a threat.
The big picture
As you can see, the geopolitical dynamics are complicated. Turkey supports the rebels partly to weaken a Kurdish movement that is only a marginal player in Syria. And the U.S. opposes Assad but considers his main domestic enemy to be a terrorist organization.
It’s not even clear what the U.S. and its allies want to happen in Syria. A complete victory for either side would likely empower a hostile government in a vital region. A continuing war would have the upside of weakening both sides but would have major costs. It could have terrible humanitarian effects, and wars often destabilize the world in unpredictable ways. “My overwhelming impression,” Ben said, “is that the U.S. just wants the war to go away.