During the first two months of his second term, President Donald Trump has shown that he is serious about bringing manufacturing production back to the United States—and that he is willing to use sweeping tariffs to make this happen. He cannot be surprised that his strategy is generating fierce opposition and retaliation from other countries. He may be surprised, however, that his tariffs are facing opposition at home, especially from the groups—young adults, non-college voters, individuals earning less than $50,000 per year, and Hispanics—whose votes put him over the top last November.
Every public opinion survey conducted in recent weeks supports this conclusion. For example, a CNN/SSRS poll released on March 12 found that 61% of Americans, and 72% of young adults, disapprove of the way Trump is handling tariffs. Fifty-nine percent of Americans without college degrees and 62% of those making less than $50,000 also registered their disapproval. Among white non-college voters, the heart of Trump’s coalition, the president managed only a 50-50 split. Of the Americans who voted for him in 2024, 20% disagree with his tariff policies. A Washington Post/IPSOS poll conducted in mid-February and a Quinnipiac poll released on March 13 produced nearly identical results.
Although Americans favor higher tariffs on China, they oppose imposing them on longtime friends and allies. For example, an Economist/YouGov survey conducted in the first week of March found only 32% support for tariffs on Canada, 33% for tariffs on the European Union, and 38% for tariffs on Mexico. Even a more targeted tariff on steel and aluminum garnered only 35% approval. In all these cases, young adults, Hispanics, and low-income voters were opposed by margins that exceeded the national average.
It is not hard to understand why so many Americans are opposed to higher tariffs. According to the Economist/YouGov survey, only 24% think that foreign countries and companies bear the cost of tariffs, while 54% think that it’s mostly American companies and consumers. In a remarkable agreement across partisan, ideological, and demographic lines, 68% of Americans believe that tariffs increase prices, compared to only 5% who say that they decrease prices and 8% who say that they have no effect on prices. This helps explain a key finding from a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll: Only 30% of Americans believe that “when the U.S. charges tariffs on imported goods, American workers come out ahead.”
In an unexpected move, the president’s Treasury secretary has confirmed some of these public doubts. In a recent address to the Economic Club of New York, Scott Bessant declared that “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream.” Translation: Tariffs will raise prices here and now to promote Trump’s long-term goal of bringing manufacturing back to the United States. The president himself has acknowledged recently that there will be short-term pain and sacrifices on the road to realizing his economic vision and, in an interview on Fox last week, declined to rule out the possibility of a recession.
While economists are divided on Trump’s strategy, the American people aren’t. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted at the end of February, 80% of the people believe that the president should give inflation a high priority, but only 29% think that he is doing so. For the economy as a whole, 82% think that it should be a high presidential priority, but only 36% think that it is.
The people believe that Trump is focusing on immigration, cutting government, and cultural issues—on everything except inflation and the economy. The president is gambling that they will be patient enough to endure high prices and even an economic slowdown to make American manufacturing great again. He could lose this bet.