Geopolitics refers to conditions that influence the economic and foreign policy inter
actions among states. A geopolitical transition, in turn, introduces changes in political
alliances, in military technologies and weapons systems, in defense budget outlays, and
in a supporting industrial base—all the variables that influence a military force posture
intended to meet anticipated conflict scenarios.
The world currently is in such a transition—from the Cold War era that extended roughly
from the end of World War II to 1991 to a new era that we and others term the “strategic
competition era.” This essay argues that the foreign policy and international economic
issues arising in this strategic competition era require a radically different US national
security structure than the one created for the Cold War era. The policies and insti
tutions of the US defense apparatus were responses to the nature of the geopolitical
environment that we then faced. Today’s very different geopolitical landscape also
requires its own approach and institutional frameworks rather than inherited systems
from the past.
A key change in the current transition is China’s rapid rise to a global military and eco
nomic power. For example, if China’s nuclear arsenal increases from six hundred war
heads in 2024 to perhaps fifteen hundred and is deployed not only on intercontinental
missiles but also by capable long-range bombers and submarines, the world will shift
from a bipolar to a tripolar nuclear world. In such a world, what is our understanding of
how to establish deterrence or whether the valued US nuclear umbrella will still be effec
tive for our allies?
Read more here.