The world is at an inflection point. We live in the most uncertain geopolitical environment since the beginning of the Soviet Union’s collapse. At this juncture, the post–Cold War rules-based international order and American global leadership are facing multiple profound challenges.
Russia, a declining power, has demonstrated in its ruthless invasion of Ukraine that it can still be a destabilizing force in global geopolitics. Meanwhile, China, despite its economic and demographic challenges, has harnessed its vast human resources and exploited access to open societies to fulfill its ambitions to become a world technological leader, to project soft power in the developing world, to threaten its neighbors, and to rewrite the rules of governance in the international system. The recent attacks in Israel by Hamas, which took place just as we were preparing this report for publication, are changing the calculus for security in the Middle East and beyond.