As late as September 2023, American foreign policy circles seemed to have settled on the need for the U.S. to redirect its attention away from the Middle East. The experience in Iraq was viewed as having led to disappointing outcomes, while the war in Afghanistan had ended in a humiliating exit.
As late as September 2023, American foreign policy circles seemed to have settled on the need for the U.S. to redirect its attention away from the Middle East. The experience in Iraq was viewed as having led to disappointing outcomes, while the war in Afghanistan had ended in a humiliating exit. A general malaise about “endless wars” had gained sway in parts of the public, despite genuine achievements and underestimated prospects for success. The argument justifying U.S. power in the Middle East because of oil and gas lost ground to environmentalist claims about a global transition to renewable energies. Furthermore, the perception that China would pose a military threat to US interests in the western Pacific was taken as a reason to exit the Middle East in order to shift military assets to the defense of Taiwan. There was of course a fatal flaw in that argument: given the global competition with China and Russia, it makes little sense to relinquish American power in one region in order to move to another, since any American departure only facilitates the expanded influence of America’s adversaries: Russia entering Syria or China’s making inroads with Riyadh.