Executive Summary:
Terrorism remains a persistent global threat, with 2024 marking
another year of shifting patterns and evolving challenges with the
geographic reach of terrorism spreading. The number of countries
experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66,
the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries
deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45
countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34
showed improvement.
Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist
organisation in 2024, responsible for 1,805 deaths across 22
countries. The four major terrorist organisations, IS, Jamaat Nusrat
Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
and al-Shabaab continued to increase their activity, with deaths
attributed to these groups increasing by 11 per cent to 4,204. In
2023, these groups were active in 29 countries which increased to
30 countries in 2024.
In 2024, 36 per cent of terrorist attacks were not claimed by an
organisation. IEP has developed a machine learning model to
assign these incidents to likely groups. The analysis found that
deaths attributed to IS would have been 58 per cent higher, while
those linked to JNIM would have been 176 per cent higher. This
underscores the challenges in accurately assessing the impact of
different terrorist organisations.
In 2024, deaths from terrorism fell to 7,555, representing a 13 per
cent decline from the previous year. This reduction was entirely due
to the large spike in the prior year from the Hamas October 7th
attack, otherwise deaths would have been approximately the same.
The number of terrorist attacks also declined, falling by three per
cent to 3,492. The drop in incidents was primarily driven by an 85
per cent decrease in terrorist activity in Myanmar. Excluding
Myanmar, global terrorist attacks would have increased by eight
per cent.
In the West, lone actor terrorism is on the rise with terrorist attacks
increasing from 32 to 52 in 2024. These attacks are typically
carried out by youths, often in their teens, who have no formal ties
to terrorist organisations. Instead, they become radicalised through
online content, constructing personal ideologies that often blend
conflicting viewpoints influenced via access to fringe forums,
gaming environments, encrypted messaging apps and the dark
web. Because there are no affiliations, it means these types of
attacks are difficult for intelligence agencies to track. Social media
algorithms also accentuate biases, pushing disaffected youth
towards more radicalised content. In Europe, one in five persons
arrested for terrorism is legally classified as a child.
In Europe, terrorist incidents doubled to 67, including attacks by IS
and Hamas. The resurgence of attacks was particularly notable in
seven Western countries – Sweden, Australia, Finland, the
Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland, with Germany being the
worst ranked nation at 27th on the Index. There are now seven
Western countries ranked amongst the 50 most impacted countries
on the GTI. Meanwhile, in the US, antisemitic and Islamophobic
hate crimes escalated sharply following the start of the Gaza war,
with FBI-recorded incidents targeting the Jewish community rising
by 270 per cent in just two months. Similar patterns emerged in
Europe and Australia, where attacks on synagogues were reported
throughout the year.
Terrorism in the Sahel has increased significantly, with deaths
rising nearly tenfold since 2019. In 2024, the Sahel accounted for
51 per cent of all terrorism deaths, while overall conflict deaths in
the region exceeded 25,000 for the first time since the inception of
the Index. Of these, 3,885 were attributed to terrorism. Terrorism
deaths here are now ten times higher than in 2019.
The Sahel remains the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for
over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of
countries affected increasing. Five of the ten countries most
impacted by terrorism are in this region. Although Burkina Faso
remains the most affected country, both deaths and attacks
declined, falling by 21 and 57 per cent respectively, however the
country is still responsible for a fifth of all terrorism deaths globally.
Niger highlights how fragile progress in reducing terrorism deaths
can be. In 2024, the country recorded the largest increase in
terrorism deaths globally, rising by 94 per cent to a total of 930,
reversing previous improvements from 2022 when it had the
second largest improvement. Niger’s example may mean that the
improvements in Burkina Faso are transitory.
Geopolitical changes continue to shape security dynamics across
the Sahel. The Alliance of Sahelian States, comprising Mali,
Burkina Faso, and Niger, has moved away from the West, instead
strengthening ties with Russia and China. This shift, along with the
bloc’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, has created opportunities for
groups such as JNIM to expand their activities into coastal West
Africa. Togo recorded its worst year for terrorism since the inception
of the Index, reflecting the broader spread of terrorist activity
beyond the Sahel’s traditional hotspots.
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